It's not AI it's interest rates
It is easy to jump on the hype-train that AI is killing jobs in technology.
But what really killed jobs is the fact that money isn't cheap any more. Should those jobs have existed in the first place?
Correlation doesn't equal causation. Etc. Etc.
Shout out to Simon for the idea to make this.
Federal Funds Rate vs. Professional Services Employment Indices (2020-2025)
Federal Funds Rate (%) - Right Axis
Software Development Employment - Left Axis
IT Professional Services Employment - Left Axis
Data Sources & Citations
Federal Funds Effective Rate
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate [DFF], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF, May 31, 2025.
Software Development Job Postings
Indeed, Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States [IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE, May 31, 2025.
Original data source: Indeed Hiring Lab Job Postings Tracker
Available under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Data generated by Indeed Hiring Lab are freely available for public use with proper citation.
IT Professional Services Job Postings
Indeed, IT Professional Services Job Postings on Indeed in the United States [IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis;
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPITOPHE, May 31, 2025.
Original data source: Indeed Hiring Lab Job Postings Tracker
Available under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Data generated by Indeed Hiring Lab are freely available for public use with proper citation.
About This Analysis
This visualization tracks the relationship between Federal Reserve monetary policy (Federal Funds Rate) and employment trends in technology sectors. The employment indices are normalized to February 1, 2020 = 100, allowing for clear comparison of relative changes over time.